OPEC Exports Seen Down 160,000 B/D on Week to May 14

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ shipments of crude oil are expected to fall 160,000 barrels a day on the week in the week ending May 14, a leading shipping analyst said Thursday.

Roy Mason of shipping consultants Oil Movements expects OPEC exports by ship to fall to 24.36 million b/d for the week ending May 14 from an upwardly revised figure of 24.52 million b/d the previous week.

“This is the first time in several weeks we have seen OPEC oil shipments fall. Chartering coming through is pretty modest,” Mason said.

But in line with OPEC’s recent pledge to raise output from April by 500,000 b/ d, Mason expects the fall to be a temporary dip, with shipments rising again in coming weeks.

For the four week period from April 16 to May 14, he expects OPEC shipments to rise 170,000 b/d to 24.360 million b/d from 24.19 million b/d.

It is the fifth successive week Mason has raised his estimate of expected OPEC shipments based on a four-week average.

The consultant put the increase down to stock building ahead of next winter.

Mason said shipments from the Persian Gulf to the Asia Pacific remain higher than those heading westbound, but said this could change in coming weeks as additional oil from Saudi Arabia becomes available.

Dow Jones