The oil rocket

Nothing can rise exponentially, even if it is crude Oil. The asset’s exponential rise is more an indication of an ending trend and not vice versa.

There aren’t any chilly warnings of Oil heading to $200, like many in OPEC believe. Does OPEC really know? The axiom linked with $40 plus Oil, as harbinger of recession has been long trashed and now not only we are waiting for recession but also for $200 Oil. It all seems a bit strange.
Oil moved up three times from the $40 mark and DOW is still at 13,000, just 7 per cent lower than historical top. So, either the other best indicator for recession that is S&P500 and DOW Jones have stopped working or econostats have blinded us.

For a start, there are some common sense rules, which say rockets come down to earth and satellites remain in the sky. The way Oil is behaving makes it either a rocket potentially getting ready to become a satellite. This all is an illusion. Oil can never become a satellite, no asset can. And, the almost ninety degree inclination to new highs is destined to collapse. And, what will collapse along with this is the dream of Oil riches.

It is how you look at it. Bloomberg Markets looked at it as the End of Oil era and a few Wall Street brokers looked at it as a great time to solicit mass mailing lists for Oil Call options. Well, we don’t subscribe to the Oil end era yet, but if the best broker suggests buying Calls with such confidence, we definitely don’t know something he knows or something everybody knows. But that is good, if we don’t know, what everybody knows. Because if everybody knows something it is already discounted and the truth is already out there that Oil is topping.

Business Standard