Toyota’s so-called tumble

NEW YORK (Fortune) — Flag-waving American loyalists were heartened to see the announcement that Toyota’s January-to-March profit sank 28%. It provided evidence that even mighty Toyota can’t escape the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse – the deadly combination of high fuel prices, surging raw material costs, the global credit crunch and a strong yen.

…But what came after that should have drained the smiles from their faces faster than a run-in with Tony Soprano. Toyota made a forecast for the next 12 months that is just as grim as its results over the last three. Toyota sees hard times. And if Toyota – the industry’s biggest, strongest player – catches a cold, most of the rest will likely develop pneumonia.


Here’s the picture: Toyota expects its revenues for the 2009 fiscal year, which ends next March, to fall nearly 5%. Its net income, meanwhile, is expected to plummet 27%. What’s worse, all of the damage will come from North America. While Toyota’s vehicle sales in Toyota’s other regions around the world are expected to rise, sales in North America could drop 6.4%.

That’s a huge blow to optimists in the American industry who had expected sales to pick up in the second half of this year and continue to cruise in ‘09. And it could well delay plans to return to profitability next year, as Ford (F, Fortune 500) has promised, or to get back to break-even, as Chrysler hopes to do.

Everybody’s biggest weakness continues to be the sales of large pickups and SUVs. Even Toyota struggles to move its Tundra pickups and Sequoia utility vehicles. Passenger cars, meanwhile, don’t waste a minute on dealers’ lots. In the U.S. last month, the Toyota Camry outsold the Chevy Silverado pickup to become the second most popular vehicle on the market.

Fortune