Fatih Birol interview: ‘Leave oil before it leaves us’

“The Sirens Shrill”

The International Energy Agency (IEA) gives the alarm: The world could run out of oil faster than expected – the danger of a supply shortage is rising

Hunger for energy vs. energy shortage: While the demand for oil is on the rise, the production is decreasing – shortages, escalating prices and inflation are looming. When talking to energy politician Astrid Schneider, Fatih Birol, chief economist of the IEA demands a change in policy from the member countries. His motto: leave oil before it leaves us.



Astrid Schneider:

Mr. Birol, in your “World Energy Outlook” which was published in November 2007 the IEA has warned for the first time that there could be a slump in oil production and escalating prices in the time from now to 2015. The reason you give is that there has been to little investment in oil production.

Fatih Birol:

Indeed. There are three reasons why that is so. The first one is the increasing demand, mostly from China, India and the Middle Eastern countries themselves. These countries are the main reason for the increasing oil consumption. Even if there should be a recession in the USA, this would not slow those countries down much, because India and China have a strong internal economic growth, while high oil prices will help the economy in the Middle East. The demand for oil will therefore remain high.

Schneider:

The second reason …?

Birol:

… is, that we see a sharp decline in production from the existing oil fields, especially in the North Sea, the USA and many non-OPEC countries. Even here money should be invested, to slow down that decline. The third reason why we expect a risk for overall production is, that we looked at all oil exploration projects around the world: 230 altogether, in Saudi-Arabia, Venezuela, the North-Sea, everywhere. Even if all those projects which are already funded will be implemented, the overall capacity they can bring for new oil production is too little.

Energy Bulletin