Everybody’s jumping on the solar bandwagon

Such sweeping visions of our solar future beg the central question of humankind’s destiny on this planet—

Do we live in a world of ever flowing abundance, or do we live in a world of limits to growth?

If your answer is “abundance”, your approach to the future requires a shift in direction in a context of business as usual. If your answer is “limits”, your approach requires a shift in behavior in a context of living within your means. What follows examines possible constraints on the expansion of solar energy in the 21st century.
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In the case of depletion, as with cadmium telluride, the optimist might also respond that there are other alternatives, such as the copper-indium-(gallium)-diselenide (CIS or CIGS) thin film technology being pursued by Siemens, Nanosolar or Global Solar Energy. The risk is that the current bullish commodities market may become a permanent feature of the economic landscape. Take the indium used in thin films. Resource Investor reports that—

The Earth is estimated to contain about 0.1 ppm [parts per million] of indium which means it is about as abundant as silver. However, bullish supply-demand fundamentals have propelled the price from US$70/kg in 2001 to over US$1,000/kg today.

Indium is produced mainly from residues generated during zinc ore processing but is also found in iron, lead, and copper ores. In recent years, supply has decreased after a number of Chinese mining concerns stopped extracting indium from their zinc tailings.

At present, about 75% of the indium in the world is used in the manufacture of Liquid Crystal Displays (LCD’s), in computer screens and the new generation of flat screen TVs. The LCD industry is expected to achieve growth rates exceeding 30% over the next three years.

The flat screens will only be for the super rich some day because unlimited growth always entails scarcity eventually. Substitutes are not always readily available for elements on the periodic chart. It will always be something. There is no way out of this maze.

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The first obstacle we must overcome in solving the power problem of the 21st century is acknowledging that there are inherent limits to growth and thus what people can or can not do. A lesson in humility is required here. There are limits at the small-scale, illustrated by the problems with solar cell manufacture discussed above, and limits at the large-scale, where planetary engineering is unlikely to ever lead to real solutions for real people.

Energy Bulletin