Page added on February 12, 2008
…In 2008, the nominal price for crude oil reached its highest level ever.
This increase was due to several economic, geopolitical, and environmental
factors such as growing world demand, limited supply growth,
smaller inventories, security concerns in oil producing countries, and a
decline in the value of the U.S. dollar.
Some fear that high oil prices reflect a peak in oil production and
predict an imminent decline in production in the near future. This type
of prediction often assumes static or growing consumption with limited
additional discovery or production. As the price of oil rises, however,
there is an economic incentive to find new sources or improve extraction
techniques. Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is one example of this
type of response. EOR is any technique that can increase the amount
of oil that can be recovered from an oil field, but it is most commonly
associated with gas injection, particularly using CO2, which forces the oil
to the surface. The Department of Energy estimates that state-of-the-art
EOR could potentially add an additional 89 billion barrels to the total
recoverable oil resources of the United States, although not all of that is
necessarily economically recoverable.
Even if production has peaked, we are unlikely to abruptly run out
of oil. As the price rises over time, producers will have an incentive to
retain some of the resource to sell at a later date and consumers will
have an incentive to transition away from oil consumption. Over time,
the price rise will make the adoption of alternative energy sources more
and more likely.
Chapter 7, page 167 of the Economic Report of the President (PDF)
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