Clouds on the Horizon

Peaceful Kurdistan has been the silver lining amidst the upheaval of the Iraq War. But controversial oil deals threaten the stability.

In the summer of 2006, as a wave of sectarian killings spread through central and southern Iraq, leaders in Iraqi Kurdistan were promoting a less violent enterprise: tourism. Dubbed the “Other Iraq” campaign, the Kurdistan Regional Government turned to print ads and television spots to draw visitors and cash to a region it claimed was “already sowing the seeds of a brighter future.” Two years later, violence remains unusual, unless one includes Turkish forays like the recent air strikes in the northern Avashin and Hakurk districts. But moves by the regional government to secure the future of Iraqi Kurdistan have stirred new fears among Iraq’s other factions.


Disagreements over oil policy, security, and regional governance are threatening to splinter the shaky alliance between Kurdish and Shiite parties in Baghdad. Kurdish officials accuse Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government of stalling a referendum to resolve the status of the disputed city of Kirkuk, and of withholding funding for the region’s military. Sunni and Shiite politicians, meanwhile, are furious over oil-exploration deals inked between the Kurdish government and international companies. Washington Post columnist David Ignatius notes the sparring has reached such a frenzied state some Kurdish leaders are pushing for Maliki to be replaced.

Politically speaking, the rift could have a dramatic impact on Iraq’s long-term stability. Kurdish parties, which make up the second-largest political bloc in the country, have been stalwart allies of both the United States and Maliki. The Kurds operated a semiautonomous government in Iraq for years before the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, earning a political aptitude that brought significant regional autonomy and a seat at the table in drafting Iraq’s constitution. But in recent months Arab politicians have fired back, rallying to check Kurdish ambitions. On January 13 a coalition of 145 Shiite and Sunni lawmakers united in defiance of what they consider Kurdish “overreaching”; unilateral oil deals and control of Kirkuk topped the list of grievances. The Iraqi parliament has also failed to ratify Iraq’s $48 billion budget for 2008, with some political blocs claiming Kurdish demands for revenue sharing are excessive.

Newsweek