China, Japan and World Food Insecurity

Yuki Takagi, who heads the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Finance Corp., was in charge of feed grain at the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries at the time. Looking back on the crisis, he said: “Prices for livestock feed doubled.”

According to Takagi, grain stockpiles around the world have dropped to those same levels of more than 30 years ago. Given the international flow of hot speculative money, he warned that “once China runs short of grain, we may be seeing an even steeper price hike in the future.” If that happens, Japan will be in trouble.
Ruan Wei, a senior researcher at the Japanese think tank Norinchukin Research Institute Co., said China may end up becoming a corn importer by around 2010. In addition to growing demand for corn to produce bioethanol and starches, China’s population is expected to grow another 100 million by 2030, further fueling demand for food and commodities.

But there is little likelihood of cultivating new croplands. The prospect of drought brought on by the effects of global warming is another factor. “It is hard to imagine there will be huge growth in corn production,” Ruan said.

Japan Focus