$100 oil a near certainty, say analysts

Goldman Sachs, one of the most active banks in the energy market, raised its price forecasts for 2008 by $10 dollars on December 12, with average benchmark US prices now seen at $95.
The price could reach $105 by the end of 2008, it said. The CGES sees an average of about $90 in the first half of the year and Drollas said a spike to $100 was a possibility, above all if a cold northern hemisphere winter increased demand for heating fuel.
The 13-member Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries is the only player in the oil industry capable of bringing down prices, but the group shrugged off calls for more crude at a December meeting in Abu Dhabi.
It is held responsible by many for the surge in prices in 2007 by restricting supplies to deliberately take down stock levels in industrialised countries.
“Opec has not been pumping enough. It’s as simple as that,” said Drollas.
Kirsch at PFC said 2007 was the year of “the re-emergence of Opec” after many had said the influence of the organisation, which pumps 40% of world oil, had waned.
He also said the “financialisation of oil,” or the use of oil as an investment product for speculators and even pension funds, was a key theme of 2007 that was set to continue in 2008.

Gulf Times