Analysis: U.S. military & Iran — Part 6

WASHINGTON, Dec. 21 (UPI) — What would be the consequences of a U.S. military attack against Iran’s nuclear program? Likely one of the first would be another blow to the international credibility of the United States. Absent authorization from the U.N. Security Council, such an attack would not only be a violation of international law, it would run counter to the Algiers Accords.

…It could also strike against energy targets in the Gulf and attack the flow of oil through the Straits of Hormuz, using, for instance, its influence among Shiite militias in neighboring Iraq. Sabotage of oil pipelines and facilities could cripple much of Iraq’s oil exports, now at close to 2 million barrels a day.

The conflict could also reduce or cut off the flow of Iranian oil to the global economy. Currently Iran sells 2.5 million barrels of oil a day, making it OPEC’s second-largest producer. Any reduction in that supply would likely propel prices steeply upward. And experts speak of up to $200 a barrel — if the U.S. and Iran move toward open conflict.

And, with the world already using close to all the oil being produced, an Iranian and Iraqi shortfall approaching 4 million barrels a day would leave global demand far outstripping supply.

UPI