$100/barrel For Oil Is Not a Stopping Point

The excerpts below from an article in the WSJ summarizes the supply issues for crude oil. Assuming no severe economic downturn that would reduce the demand for oil, supply will continue to be the primary constraint in the market. This coupled with a falling dollar basically means that prices in excess of $100/barrel will be in the norm in the near future. People have done all sorts of predictions about what “Peak Oil” looks like, well this is what if looks like. Text in bold is my emphasis.

Several leading oil experts, gathered here yesterday for an annual energy conference, sketched a near-term future in which mounting global demand and shrinking supplies push oil prices well past the $100-a-barrel mark.


Consuming countries, they argued, will simply have to deal with the fact that new pockets of oil are getting far harder and more expensive to tap. That, combined with years of underinvestment by the industry, has led to a tapering off of new oil supplies that will continue for years, despite rising energy demand in Asia, the Middle East and some industrialized countries.

Prices have jumped nearly 40% since early summer, the oil ministers of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates said, because of the slumping dollar, widespread Wall Street speculation and bottlenecks in the refining process.

…A top official at the Energy Department disputed OPEC’s claim that supply isn’t an immediate challenge. “We think the market still needs more barrels, as we look toward the next year or so,” said Guy Caruso, an administrator at the department’s Energy Information Administration. “The problem is we don’t have cushions,” in terms of spare production capacity and spare crude stocks, he said. “We have relatively low and declining inventories and a refining sector that’s finding it hard to get the crude it needs.”

Common Sense Forecaster