Peak Oil Phenomenon

Monday, March 21st 2005
by Mary King

In August 2004 I wrote a series of articles that discussed the impending world wide peak in oil production. These articles were triggered by the continuing debate on the size of our natural gas reserves, the rate at which they are being depleted and the lagging rate of replenishing these reserves. Hence, I was very pleased to see the book, Peak Oil Paradigm Shift by Bilaal Abdullah, released in the local market. In concert with the views of M King, Hubbert, Jean Laherere and Colin Campbell the book makes the point that the peak in production of oil in the world is at hand, as near as 2010.
Given that the production curve for oil is parabolic this does not mean that there will be no oil after 2010 but that the production rate will drop in an environment of increasing demand. If there are no real substitutes for oil then its price will continue to increase.

The book agrees with my article of August 16, 2004, that since energy prices will no longer be low, we should be highlighting conservation; further, that we in T&T should be looking towards the local use of our natural gas resource in this depleting oil-gas-based energy scenario for electricity, transportation and manufacturing.

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