After ANWR

by Jim Kunstler

Now that President Bush has got permission to open up the Arcitic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling, it will be interesting to see what else he has in mind to counter America’s imminent collision with the Peak Oil predicament. My guess: absolutely nothing. The period after ANWAR is settled will be the time when Bush, and indeed the entire groaning apparatus of national leadership, are revealed to be detached from reality and devoid of ideas for dealing with reality.
ANWAR contains perhaps four billion barrels of oil. Since America uses over 20 million barrels a day (one billion every fifty days), ANWAR represents about a half year’s supply. It will take several years to ramp up production there, and to build the expensive pipelines needed to get the oil out. By that time, the US will have hit the wall of energy reality. Gasoline will already be expensive enough to cast doubt on the continuing project of suburbia. Since building suburban houses and all their accompanying infrastructure is the basis of our national economy, the world will have reason to conclude that the US has poor economic prospects, and therefore other nations will feel a steep disincentive to continue investing in our debt and equities. When that happens, the dollar craps out, credit evaporates, and a huge new class of economic losers materializes here in the US.

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