ASPO 06 Have we reached the tipping point?

It seems to me that we have reached several important tipping points this year in relation to Peak Oil, Climate Change and their impact on public consciousness. Peak oil is a geological tipping point, but I am more interested in psychological tipping points: when Peak Oil enters the general consciousness and stops being a dubious fringe pursuit. I think we may have reached that point, unfortunately at the same time as we are rolling over the peak “plateau”.


Tipping Point 1: “The battle is over – the Peakists have won.”
– James Schlesinger, former US Energy Secretary and ex-CIA director

When people from the “inner circle” of the global elite give overt credence to Peak Oil Theory, then we can say the battle of credibility is won. Schlesinger wouldn’t be committed to a peak date, and he did seem to be in the “Technology Will Save Us” camp, but his pronouncement was welcome.

Tipping Point 2: “A large hole that has to be filled”
-Mike Rodgers, PFC Energy

Mike looked at the statistics of oil exploration and production. He said that exploration was less successful than before. Over the last 10 years we have only found one barrel for every three we use. Oil fields pass over peak and go into decline when they are between 50 and 60% depleted averaging out at 54%. There is a large hole in potential future production “OPEC will reach the critical level of 60% depletion in the later part of the next decade”. PFC’s estimate is that Saudi Arabia is 41% depleted now.

The picture is looking fairly grim.

Energy Bulletin