Bubble Energy?

“In the future, scientists will learn how to convert stupidity into clean fuel.”
Prediction #16, The Dilbert Future , 1997, Scott Adams.

Talk of an alternative energy “bubble” started percolating in the trade and cyber-press over the past several months. The fact is, the staid Dow Jones industrial average has done as well or better than most alternative energy indexes. So, hot, or not? Since global energy demand is rising unabated (see my recent story , Demand-Side Economics), the core question is, How big a piece can alternatives capture?
Does alternative energy mean renewable, or green, or sustainable or clean? Are we chasing this stuff to bring down pilloried oil companies, avoid hydrocarbons, stifle the Middle East, become more socially responsible or more carbon-light, or just to clean things up? Call me naive, but for clarity’s sake, let’s strip out motivation and politics and simply define an energy technology as an alternative where it has less than 5% market share.

Falling way below the 5% threshold includes such energy-producing technologies as photovoltaics (PVs) and windmills, as well as oil from tar sands or coal, or liquid fuels from prairie grass or rapeseeds. The 5% bogey includes advanced low-emission coal plants. Well below 5% are alternative energy-storage technologies such as lithium batteries and fuel cells.

Also deep below 5% are energy-conversion technologies such as hybrid vehicles and light-emitting diodes, and energy-control software/systems that enable “smart” buildings and manufacturing.

Has anything changed since 1979, when pretty much the same list of energy alternatives were proffered in that Harvard Energy Future report and similar studies by other energy gurus? Yes and no.