Africa: Oil & Gas Discoveries – the Implications

Theoretical models regarding the life span of the current oil reserves have been advanced. According to these models, the world’s oil reserves will be depleted within the next 30-40 years. This is an extremely worrying situation as the modern economy, especially the heavily industrialized nations, greatly depend on oil. What will, then, happen when, in the last years of the first half of this century, the world oil reserves become less and less? Who will be the super power?

Clearly those nations with good oil reserves and a good base of technology will have a major influence in world politics. This inevitably sets the trend of current international politics.
The most industrialized countries which are great oil producers are, at the same time, great importers of oil. Undoubtedly, this implies a large measure of oil hoarding. Oil is being imported by those countries and kept away for the rainy day.

The heavy importers and consumers are mainly the industrialized and highly developed countries (countries of the North) while the rest belong to the South category.

Using the Centre-Periphery theory, the greatest importers and consumers belong to the Centre and the rest belong to the Periphery. Thus, the oil resources like any resource flow towards the centre where there is a high density of science and technology.

The Competition-Coalition principle of the centre will be greatly intensified. This means that there will be an intense competition for the limited oil resource by the nations of the centre and at the same time they will closely unite to fight any influence that threatens or appear to threaten their access to this limited resource.

What then are the implications of the oil discoveries in Africa?

– World focus on Africa will become more intensified. The scramble for economic spheres of influence will be more directed to those countries with oil.

– The African nations with newly discovered oil/gas may become a member of OPEC.

– The economic and political developments of those oil nations will be more closely monitored by the centre to ensure that they do not develop what may be classified as Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) or harbour any labelled ‘terrorist’ elements.

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