Petrol: global scenario until 2030

Many experts claim the world’s most essential commodity is likely to suffer an accentuated rise in price followed by strong geopolitical instability. Have we reached the peak of Hubbert’s curve, where oil production is destined to undergo an inexorable decline?

As oil production failed to grow since 2000, experts classified 2005 as the year of an oil production peak (and 2010 for every other liquid substance). The cost of extraction and research in the oil industry has been constantly on the rise, seeing as new oil-fields have been increasingly difficult to find and are now mostly located in deep seabeds. Oil refining (still a sector producing high investment yields) is, in turn, threatened by new environmental policies, excessive costs with human resources and new technologies, not to mention, and most importantly, an unstable demand, where necessary investments are high, re-imbursements take long to compensate initial investments, and yet where securing demand remains a top priority. At any event, we ask the question: how much will OPEC countries’ supply grow? Or rather, how much crude will they be able to supply the world with in response to projected increases in consumption and a decline in production? Whilst in 2010, OPEC countries will need to disburse 50 billion dollars in investments, the amount predicted in the year 2015 is estimated at 140.


Petrol demand is expected to represent 93% of global energy demand by 2030. Given an average global economic growth of 3.5%, and oil prices varying from 50 to 60 dollars a barrel (excluding possible technological advances and energy policy interventions), demand is expected to increase from 2005 values of 83 mb/d to 118 mb/d by 2030 (medium growth scenario). Whilst OECD countries will respond for a consumption of 53.4 % of resources, developing countries will double their consumption (from 29 mb/d to 58 mb/d) by 2030, with a relevant increase in Asian countries’ (20 mb/d; China in particular, from 6.5% to 16.4% by 2030) and that of member countries of OPEC (from 7.4% to 11.7%), followed by Southeast Asia (from 4.4 % to 9%) and Latin America (from 4.6% to 6.8%). Growth will be strong in the sectors of domestic, commercial, agricultural, and industrial goods, especially in China and Southeast Asia. The greater share of demand, however, will be absorbed by transport. Road vehicles are estimated to reach figures of 1.198 billion, a considerable jump compared to 718 million in 2005. Projections for 2007-2030 predict a decline in consumption in all geographical areas, with an average reduction of 0.8%. Similarly, projections for petrol-generated electricity point to a fall in consumption of 1 mb/d (especially in OPEC countries).

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