The Oil Drum: Peak Lite Revisited

While I believe that a global peak in worldwide oil production presents an unprecedented challenge to the way most of the Western world lives our lives, I do not believe that world oil production has yet peaked. However, in looking at the new oil capacity that is scheduled to come online, and contrasting that with the projected demand growth, it became clear to me over a year ago that demand was going to rise faster than new supply could come online.

This prompted me to propose the idea of “Peak Lite.” It is “peak”, because the symptoms will mostly manifest themselves as those of a true production peak: Not enough supply to meet demand. In fact, we have already passed the point at which there is enough $25/bbl oil supply to meet everyone’s desires. But production can still grow in this scenario, which is why it is “lite”. In that case, people may underestimate the significance of the problem.

The Oil Drum