Page added on July 3, 2007
Will the fact that growth (or rather the limitations on growth) is the peg on which India is hanging its objections at the international level sidetrack it from taking appropriate domestic measures to weaken the link between economic growth and atmospheric pollution? Is it conceivable that in the noise of multilateralism India will lose sight of the fact that growth and carbon mitigation are positively correlated; that while growth has no doubt contributed to pollution — emissions in China and India have in absolute terms grown 5 times faster than the US since 1990 and this trend is not decelerating — it is the condition precedent for building the financial resources, the technologies, the infrastructure and indeed the political will to redeem its consequences.
I raise these questions because I find that most debates on climate change in India get bogged down in denunciations of the West rather than in studied introspection of the implications of a scientific reality. The West is of course responsible for the current situation, but the consequence of global warming is global. We cannot escape from these consequences and so irrespective of whether there is an international agreement or not, we have to have a programme of domestic remediation.
India is today at an inflexion point. Growth has pushed past 8 per cent and the prospect of a double digit number is alluringly real. The perennial concerns of inflation, fiscal deficit, poor infrastructure, energy and slipshod governance remain, however, major concerns. They hang over our macro economy like the sword of Damocles. Amongst these the failure to provide reliable, affordable and accessible energy has to be arguably the most worrisome impediment to sustainable high growth.
The government is, of course, fully cognisant of the seriousness of this issue and it has placed energy on top of its economic agenda. The PM chairs an Energy Coordination Committee of concerned ministers; the ministry of external affairs has just announced the setting up of a division on energy security; the Planning Commission is the fount of integrated energy policy and the independent energy ministries (petroleum, coal, power, non conventional and nuclear) have clearly defined sector-specific agendas. The problem is not, therefore, lack of awareness. It is in the tilt towards supply-side issues rather than demand-side management. It is a skew that should be corrected for two reasons: one, there is huge potential value to be unlocked through conservation and energy efficiency. For instance, India is ranked among the most energy inefficient countries in the world. One report suggests that next to China it is the most inefficient. This report states that for every USD 1000 increment in GDP India consumes an additional 1.5 barrels of oil whereas France, Italy and the UK consume only 0.75 barrels for a comparable increment and the US 1.25 barrels. The second reason is that it will reduce appreciably carbon emissions.
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