Breaking the addiction to cheap oil

M. King Hubbert started a debate about energy nearly half a century ago that still rages today.

Hubbert worked as a geophysicist for Shell Oil for more than 20 years starting in 1943 as part of a distinguished career. Of his many notable contributions to his field of study, he is best remembered for the Hubbert Peak Theory, more commonly referred to today as Peak Oil.


Peak Oil theory begins with the reasonable enough idea that oil reserves are finite. It then goes on to suggest that oil production, either in a particular patch or globally, follows a life cycle. Put that life cycle on a graph and it resembles a typical bell-shaped curve. Oil extraction rapidly expands in the early stages of production, then reaches a peak, then inexorably declines as the oil that remains becomes harder to access and refine and is eventually depleted. When the world reaches that peak, we can expect to see dramatic and sustained price increases for petroleum.

The controversy surrounding Hubbert’s theory centres on its ability to accurately predict when peak production will occur for the planet. The model accurately predicted peak oil production in the United States in 1970, which tends to validate its reliability. Hubbert predicted global peak production would occur around the year 2006. It is not apparent whether we have now reached or are about to reach global peak production; that will only become clear with the benefit of hindsight.

Hamilton Spectator