No Time to Lose

…According to our best, most realistic estimates, here

Tar sands and oil shales: Shortages of fresh water and natural gas and/or nuclear power to process them virtually assure that they will remain minor players. According to Prof. Aleklett, President of the ASPO, the Canadian tar sands will probably hit a plateau of around 3.5 mbpd around 2015 and stay flat until it drops off around 2040 (a projection more or less in line with that of the IEA). So the tar sands would account for a mere 4% of current global oil consumption, or about the same amount of oil that will be lost due to oil field depletion less than two years after the global peak.

Energy and Capital