Perspectives on Energy Stocks

World Oil Production May Have Reached Its Peak

…In the case of supply, within the next five years, three countries may reach a peak in oil production: Mexico, China and Russia. Several analysts estimated that Mexican oil production would likely peak around 3.4 million barrels per day and that this event would occur in 2004. Mexico


As for the possibility of Saudi Arabia and OPEC riding to the rescue, there is a major debate occurring within energy circles as to whether they will be able meet rising oil demand. Saudi Arabia says that they will have no problem meeting incremental oil demand for years to come. They estimate that they have over 250 billion barrels of reserves. This estimate has not changed since 1988, despite their producing over 3 billion barrels per year for nearly twenty years. Saudi Aramco, the Saudi state oil company, has acknowledged that its gross depletion rate is now approaching eight percent. If true, Saudi Arabia needs to bring on 800,000 barrels per day of new oil production each year to offset declines in existing fields. Several OPEC nations appear to have already peaked in their production capabilities. We wonder whether the margin of safety is as great as what Saudi Arabia would have us believe. The last independent audit of their reserves was done nearly thirty years ago and at that time, their reserves were estimated to be 110 billion barrels. It does raise a question.

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