Review Essay: The View from the Peak

…So what can be said about peak oil today? Richard Heinberg and Leonardo Maugeri provide some solid answers – and radically different conclusions.

The Party’s Over is one of that increasing number of ‘doom and gloom’ books warning us about a coming energy crunch. Heinberg, who was writing about issues of sustainability long before it was fashionable, provides a pedagogic overview of what the end of the age of oil could mean for industrial society. Published in 2003, it is one of the earliest of a recent flood of similar efforts. Heinberg provides a clear overview of how our civilisation has bloomed thanks to its ability to harness energy sources – in particular, in the last century, the energy contained in oil. He explains that we will soon run out of that vital resource, that there is no convenient alternative, and offers some suggestions on how to adapt to the fairly sombre future he sees for humanity once oil becomes scarce.


Conversely, The Age of Oil , by an oil industry insider (Maugeri works in the Strategy Department of ENI, the Italian oil major), focuses on the boom-and-bust cycles that have marked the last century of oil history, and contends that today’s tightening markets (and higher prices) can be explained by much the same temporary reasons that caused previous price spikes. He relates several episodes when various entities wrongly claimed that oil was about to run out, and comes out with the unambiguous message that today’s peak oil theorists will turn out just as wrong.

Oil production in many areas has followed the same pattern. First, the larger, more accessible fields are put in production and generate fast-increasing volumes, as their internal pressure makes the extraction of oil easy and cheap. If properly managed (not usually the case in the past), production can then be kept steady for a number of years or, for the biggest fields, decades. But as the reservoirs are emptied of the most accessible reserves, production slowly starts to sag. To maintain production, other (usually smaller) fields need to be put on line, or new technology has to be used to enhance recovery in existing fields. Increasing investment is needed for smaller and smaller returns.

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