The Oil Drum: Does the Hubbert Linearization Ever Work?

In Part I, we examined the evolving Hubbert Linearization (HL) of Texas oil production, and found that the predictive precision of the technique was quite poor. The error range was on the order of 3 decades. However, some have suggested that the trends just need to stabilize, and then we can be more confident in the predictions. Others offered rationalizations for why Texas behaved as it did, and suggested that the HL is still a useful predictive tool provided we somehow filter the data. Still others suggested that it is futile to attempt to linearize non-linear data. In this essay, we will push this issue further. I will examine more cases that cast grave doubts in my mind that the HL can accurately predict anything.

But first, does this debate even matter?
Much more after the jump to The Oil Drum.