Britain to Become German Energy Vassal

North Sea oil and gas production may now have entered the stage of prolonged and irreversible decline following Hubbert’s Peak. Steps need to be taken, says Malcolm Webb, the UK Offshore Operators Association chief executive: “[T]he implications for future production and secure indigenous energy supplies could be serious. Both the industry and government have their responsibilities in this.”

The worse-than-expected production data, as compiled by the dti, is shocking. These figures indicate that Britain’s oil production peaked during 1999 at 2.6 million barrels per day. dti’s models predicted annual production declines between 3 to 5 percent, and between 1999 and 2003 that held true. However, since then, the declines have been far greater. During 2005, oil production dropped by 11.2 percent, while the latest monthly statistics indicate that the decline in 2006 will be dramatically worse, especially since the August figure was down an alarming 16.5 percent year over year.
Britain’s natural gas production figures reveal an even uglier picture. Gas production peaked in 2001 and has since fallen by about 4 percent per year. Yet again, recent declines are dramatically worsening. Production was down 16 and 24 percent year over year in September and October respectively. For 2006, total production is expected to be 15 percent lower than during 2005.

According to Scotland’s Press and Journal, it is possible that some oil developments already in construction could temporarily slow the North Sea oil production freefall, “but there is nothing known out there that might reverse the gas slide” (February 5).

Britain is already a net importer of both oil and gas, but if current production declines continue, some estimates suggest Britain will be compelled to import 90 percent of its natural gas requirements by 2020. This means Britain will have to increasingly look abroad for sources of energy. Not only could this hurt the economy (as Britons would have to spend more money purchasing energy from foreign nations), but, even more importantly, it could also have serious implications for national security.

Moscow and Berlin are locked in a high stakes game of power politics. Once the Baltic pipeline comes online, both Germany and Russia will vastly increase their geopolitical muscle within Europe.

The Trumpet