Iran Is Iraq

…Iran is another Iraq for the obvious reason that Iran is sitting on a large amount of oil. With Saudi Arabia as the world leader, Iran is second, Iraq is third. In terms of the geopolitical significance of its resources, Iran and Iraq are on par. Supply this year ought to be, once again, very tight indeed, and into the future, far more so. Unfortunately.

“Few or no analysts care to remark that by July-August 2007, world oil demand in the summer peak can attain well over 88 Mbd on an all liquids base.” — Andrew McKillop, a Senior Energy Strategist, at Juno Mother Earth Asset Management, New York.

Given that global oil production has not been able to even approach this figure of 88 Mbd (instead it’s peaked at around 85 Mbd), we could see a crunch in the oil market this summer. We could see oil prices reaching a new ceiling of perhaps $85 or more. All this is speculation of course, but it’s reasonable speculation. And with this uncomfortable scenario possibly facing the most energy addicted nation on the planet, that nation needs a Plan B, C, D etc. It needs a few contingency plans. War with Iran needs to be avoided for as long as possible, of course, but access to its oil (and oil in the region) is no longer a matter of preference, it is a matter of absolute dependence.

The U.S.A. is also taking a fairly active role in Africa, citing terrorist activity in the horn of Africa (Somalia). As it happens, Somalia is geographically appropriate to the Gulf, and is possibly another contingency in the case of Saudi Arabia being unfriendly to the idea of playing “Operational Base.”

OhMyNews