No warmth, energy comes first

You could be excused for thinking that we’ll soon do something serious about global warming. Last Friday, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that, to a 90% probability, human activity is warming the Earth. Earlier, Democratic congressional leaders made global warming legislation a top priority and 10 big US firms (including GE and DuPont) endorsed federal regulation. Strong action seems at hand.

Don’t be fooled. The dirty secret about global warming is this: We have no solution. About 80% of the world’s energy comes from fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas), the main sources of manmade greenhouse gases. Energy use sustains economic growth, which buttresses political and social stability. Until we can replace fossil fuels, or find ways to capture their emissions, governments will not sanction deep energy cuts that would affect global warming.
You should treat the pious exhortations to “do something” with scepticism, or contempt. These pronouncements are naive, self-interested, misinformed, stupid, or dishonest. Politicians mainly want to be seen as reducing global warming when they’re not. Companies want to polish their images and exploit markets created by new environmental regulations.

Anyone who honestly examines global energy trends must reach these harsh conclusions. In 2004, world emissions of CO2 totalled 26 billion metric tonnes. Under plausible economic and population assumptions, they’ll grow to 40 billion metric tonnes by 2030, projects the International Energy Agency in Paris. About three-quarters of the increase comes from developing countries, two-fifth from China alone. By 2009, IEA expects China to pass the US as the largest source of CO2.

Poor countries won’t sacrifice economic growth — lowering poverty and fostering political stability — to placate the rich world’s global warming fears. Why should they? On a per person basis, their CO2 emissions are only about one-fifth the level of rich countries. In Africa, less than 40% of the population even has electricity.

Nor will the existing technologies rescue us.

Economic Times/India Times