The Peak Oil Crisis: CERA Week 2007

If you are in the energy business then “CERAWeek,” a convention in Houston put on by the energy consulting firm Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), was the place to be last week. Attending this “world renowned event” were some 1,600 “CEOs, sheiks, professors, analysts and energy decision makers,” who paid up to $5,500 to listen to 120 distinguished speakers pontificate on the future of the world’s energy supplies.

Now, some of you may recall that the Cambridge Energy folks are the ones who don’t believe peak oil is imminent. They believe this so fervently that they are constantly issuing papers and writing articles “proving” that geological limits to the continued expansion of oil supplies are decades away. Thus it seems natural that when Cambridge Energy orchestrates an energy convention, it starts with the underlying premise that the world economy and oil production will continue to grow nicely for at least the next 25 years.
So there you have it, the current industry and therefore CERA’s official and at least public, position. We in the industry are right and peak oil proponents are wrong— there is plenty of oil accessible under the ground to let the industry keep growing. However, if you politicians up here on the surface would only stop having wars, stop nationalizing our oil fields, let us drill everywhere we want, and invest trillions in new exploration and production, everything will be fine. Otherwise all bets are off.

There is a subtle distinction here that we all need to understand. If future oil shortages are caused by geology – simply running out of oil that can be produced at affordable prices – then peak oil is inevitable, a God-given fact of nature. On the other hand, if oil production peaks in the next few years and if it is caused by people –-wars, restrictions, nationalizations, and an irresponsible lack of investment — then there is still hope for a bright prosperous future.

There was, of course, much more to the CERA conference than simply ignoring the mounting evidence for peak oil.

Falls Church News Press