Preparing Nigerian cities for expensive oil

In the next 20 years, the World’s cities will go through a fundamental transformation. Many including Nigeria will expand greatly in size and population, and still have to serve the basic mobility needs of their people in a world of much higher oil prices. In the second half of the 20th century, major cities began to emulate the transportation policies of the United States of America. Countries like Nigeria admired US automobiles and borrowed US highway design methods to reshape their cities around the automobile.
Back in the 20th century this seemed unwise. Oil prices reached very low levels than ever known, and large companies in important sectors are engaged in using vehicles. Cities grew out of these concepts and tended to make it easy to drive anywhere and impossible to walk or cycle safely, in Lagos,Onitsha,Ibadan or Kano. Many Nigerian cities and African cities are ultimate manifestation of this economic structure. Roghly 90 per cent of residents in Lagos, Abuja, Enugu and PortHacourt rely on private cars or public buses for their daily commute, or even short trips. In New York City, with the largest mass transit system in USA, about one-third of the population still drives to work.
About 72 per cent of these trips are less than eight kilometres and 22 per cent less than 2 kilometres. Only in USA would so many people find it necessary to move a weighty vehicle such as SUVs, Jeeps, Humvees for a short trip. This is why the US consumes roughly a quarter of the World’s annual oil production.

In developing countries like Nigeria, where per capita income is sometimes as low as a dollar per day, only the wealthiest (10 per cent of the population) are likely to own a private vehicle in their life time. So, domination of public space by the motor vehicle directly translates to domination of public space by the ultra-rich. Because population densities are frequently so much higher in Nigeria, expanding roads are generally a priority. It is often more expensive and socially difficult in developing countries, requiring the forcible relocation of people and buildings sometimes without compensation.
As a result, congestion tends to become a problem at much lower levels of motor ownership. Also, higher density means more people are immediately exposed to traffic related noise and air pollution obtainable in Aba, lagos, Kano, and Ibadan. With far more pedestrians, and weaker enforcement of poor driving, many more road users are killed. In China, the number of pedestrians killed each year is a state secret. As developing cities such as Abuja emulate the American way, obesity related diseases are rapidly spreading as walking, jogging, and cycling become more difficult.

Vanguard