The Great Thirst

Looking ahead to a post-global warming life in California, 60 years hence

The following extrapolation presents a worst-case scenario of California’s water situation in the coming decades, but not necessarily an unlikely one. It is based on a variety of sources, including interviews and conversations over the past several years with scientists and government agency staffers, such as those associated with the University of California, the California Department of Water Resources and the Bay Institute. (The observations of Jeffrey Mount of UC Davis and John Harte of UC Berkeley were particularly enlightening.)

Various textual sources — including white papers produced by the state’s Climate Action Team — were also a source of both statistics and inspiration. The Climate Team reports, prepared for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the state Legislature before the drafting of the 2006 Global Warming Solutions Act, postulate likely impacts of global warming on precipitation patterns, water availability, hydroelectric power, forestry and agriculture. Few of the conclusions are comforting.

Finally, I must acknowledge that my field observations from two decades of reporting on water played a role in this soothsaying exercise. The main thing I’ve learned is that larger trends don’t necessarily translate into predictable regional events. Global warming likely will result in somewhat drier winters and less snowpack for the Sierra; strong El Ninos, also predicted in most current global warming projections, mean wetter, warmer winters for the North State. I’ve tried to reconcile these two seemingly disparate projections in this piece.

I’ve also learned that nature invariably seeks and exploits the weakest link. I still remember the panic engendered by the second year of the 1976-77 drought. And I recall covering the great floods of 1997, the year, some experts say, we came close to losing Sacramento.

One day that winter, I stood on Highway 70 at the point it disappeared into a roiling inland sea, the outflow of the Feather, Yuba and Bear rivers. Among the flotsam were trailer homes and huge propane tanks, venting gas as they rolled in the brown water. Submerged beneath the flood was the little town of Olivehurst. Then, it was a mere hamlet surrounded by croplands. Today, it is a residential tract boomtown. The engineers say the new levees they are constructing will withstand anything the rivers deliver. I wonder.

San Francisco Chronicle