Central Asia’s coming energy power struggle

A dictator’s sudden death usually triggers political instability. But it is doubly dangerous when it poses a risk of regional destabilization and a scramble for influence among the world’s greatest military powers.

The sudden death last month of Saparmurat Niyazov, Turkmenistan’s authoritarian president-for-life who declared himself “Turkmenbashi” (Leader of all Turkmens), jeopardizes stability in an increasingly important supplier of energy to Europe. Worse, the absence of a clearly designated successor and the weakness of civil society and other political institutions could have repercussions across Asia.
Indeed, Niyazov’s demise highlights the broader problems of Central Asia’s post-Soviet regimes, which, with the exception of Kyrgyzstan, are run by Soviet-era bosses who, while not nearly as eccentric or egomaniacal as Niyazov, tolerate little dissent or opposition.

Most of them are old, some of them are unwell. So, in the next few years, Central Asia will face leadership change on many fronts, with security apparatuses — which, as in Turkmenistan, have been crucial to buttressing these countries’ regimes — likely to be important players.

How these transitions turn out will matter for several reasons.

Taipei Times