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Nuclear power’s share of global power supply is likely to shrink over the next few decades as political indecision and public opposition stunt its growth.
Even optimists do not see a big expansion in nuclear power’s share of electricity production over the next few decades, despite governments warming to it as fears over climate change and security of energy supply intensify.
“In relative shares, in most projections out to 2030 nuclear power is going to decline,” Hans-Holger Rogner, head of nuclear energy planning at the International Atomic Energy Agency, told Reuters.
“Is it just lip service that our politicians pay or do they really mean it?” Rogner said. “That will make a difference over the next 20 to 30 years.”
Because of the huge costs involved in building new nuclear plants and disposing of the waste, private companies demand investment security from governments, particularly a long-term, global cost on carbon emissions. There is no sign of that yet.
Even where there is a cost for carbon, potential investors in new European reactors are reluctant to commit to new build because Europe’s CO2 trading scheme currently ends in 2012.
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