The Oil Drum: World Crude Oil Production Forecast (Now v. Fut Megaprojects)

Being an oil and gas investor, I have a keen interest in forecast world oil production and its impact on oil prices and the global economy. After reading Khebab’s story about many different production forecasts, I decided to build my own model using Chris Skrebowski’s megaprojects (each project > 50,000 bpd) database and some decline rate assumptions. The annual decline rates vary from 4% for new fields, 6% for mature field workovers, 7% for mature fields to 14% (for specific field decline rates eg Cantarell). The model has 95 new megaprojects/workovers and 120 existing fields.
Much more after the jump to The Oil Drum. (Also, don’t forget to check our favorite post of the year thread here.)