The President’s Speech

January, 2005–In December of 2003 I got a two-page letter from President Bush defending his energy polices. It came with an eight-page enclosure to back up the letter. Now I honestly have no idea why someone that busy would take the time to defend himself to me, but “Ghawar Is Dying” certainly came to mind. (I got his letter two months before I wrote “60 Days Next Year”.) I did offer, in my response, to write the speech we both know he’s going to have to give before he leaves office in January of 2009: The public announcement of The Last Great Oil Crisis and the onset of The Dim Ages.

So I got to thinking about it–as I often do. What would that speech be like? What would he say? And what if he actually did ask me to write it? Well, if he did, it might all go down something like this:

Good evening. Over 50 years ago, an oil geologist named Marion King Hubbert perfected a formula for predicting the production curve of an oil well. Mr. Hubbert’s theory of how an oil well would act over time was adaptable, and could be applied to entire oil fields. In 1955, he applied that theory to the entire oil production of the lower 48 United States, and said then that oil production would peak around 1970. He wasn’t popular, but he was right. Domestic oil production, in the lower 48 states, has been in decline for over 30 years. Others after him used his work to predict the peak of global oil production, and that peak–The Hubbert Peak–is now.
From the moment back in 1859, when oil was first struck in Pennsylvania, until today, one hundred and fifty years later, we–the people of the world–have used about half of all the oil we can expect to find. The second half of that oil will take less than forty years to consume. Saudi Oil Minister Sheik Yamani once said that the Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stones, and the Oil Age won’t end because we will run out of oil, and he was right. What we are facing, however, is a decreasing supply of cheap oil that’s easy to produce and easy to deliver to consumers around the world. It won’t happen all at once, but it will happen. It is happening. It began when we pumped that first barrel, all those years ago. Now we need to prepare for what will happen next. We will see our supplies of crude oil, both domestic and foreign, continue to fall as we work to bring alternatives on line to bridge the gap between supply and demand.

I’ve instructed the Commerce Department to do everything in its power to prevent price gouging and shortfalls–to help prevent panic buying of gasoline, food, and commodities–but that’s just the immediate issue. To get through this over the long haul, we’re all going to have to make some changes. We’re going to have to live smarter, and we’re going to have to get by on less. We are not facing the Dark Ages, as some have predicted, but we do face a future of diminishing available energy: the Dim Ages. There are things we can do–things we must do–as a government, as a civilized industrial society, and as individuals.

As individuals, we can all work to lower the amount of energy we need in our everyday lives. We can live closer to work, travel less and plan more. We can use less electricity in our homes and at work. We can shop smart and look for ways to use less energy in everything we do. We can ride bicycles. We will not stop what we are doing; we will not abandon our way of life; but we will find a new way to get on with our lives.

I’ve requested that the Department of Transportation open up this country to a new class of private vehicle: the microcar. Popular around the world, these small vehicles, both gas and electric, will help us cut our energy use as we drive around town, which is where we do most of our driving and use so much of our energy. These smaller cars will help us better use what we have, but it will take time to get them to the American consumer.

For longer trips, we’re going to have to rebuild America’s railroads. One hundred years ago, we had the finest railroad system in the world. We can have that again. We must have that again. It’s time to rebuild our comprehensive rail system based on a three-tiered system of urban trolleys, intercity trains, and long distance haulers–all for both passengers and freight. The American highway system that has served us so well for so long will not be abandoned, but it will have to take a back seat to the railroads. It’s time to get on the train and bring America’s railroads up to speed to meet our needs.

I’m going to call on the airlines of America to do what they can to conserve their diminishing fuel resources by consolidating air travel routes and avoid duplications in effort. If we are going to fly– and as long as we’re going to fly–we need to fly smart and save as much energy as we can no matter how we travel. It’s time to ask the question we’ve asked before: “Is this trip necessary?”

People living along our extensive coastlines are going to see a new old sight: the return of the sailing ship. From Maine to Florida and around to Texas, from Alaska to California and out to Hawaii, we are going to do everything we can to develop new technology that will make trans-oceanic sailing ships faster, more comfortable, and the way to travel across great expanses of water in the future.

But much of the energy we use we don’t even use here in America. The energy we use to maintain our military presence abroad is astounding. It’s time to bring our troops home. It’s time to concentrate on America. To that end, I have requested the withdrawal of American troops world wide, to be returned to American soil within the year. If any country wishes for us to maintain an American military presence within their borders, it must be put to a general public vote in that country, and it has to pass without question. We will help our friends, but we in turn must have help from them.

Our priorities are going to change. We are going to live better, not bigger. We are not going to go hungry or do without, but we are going to be more thoughtful about everything we do. As oil gets scarce over the years, we are going to find our lives changing for the better–our health changing for the better–as we learn to feed the machine within and take better care of ourselves.

I mentioned bicycles earlier, and if that’s an option for you, I recommend it. If you don’t have a bicycle, buy one. If you do have a bicycle, now is the time to use it. Cars are going to become increasingly expensive to own and operate. If you can arrange your life to be able to walk, pedal, or use mass transit for most of your travels, you’re going to be far ahead of the game. If you can’t, other options will become available as time goes on. We need to be adaptable. We need to be able to change. We need to be aware of the energy we use every step of the way.

Home and business energy use is another area of concern, as oil and natural gas are used to fuel many of our nation’s power plants. Now is the time to take a good look at your home and business in terms of lowering the energy use there. What can you do–and what can you do without? What can you change to use less energy everywhere? I will be asking Congress for serious tax breaks on home and business energy systems that will allow us to explore the microgeneration of power, making each building energy self-sufficient. Solar and wind power are going to be in the forefront of this effort. We are going to be in the forefront of this effort. It is time to change America for the better and make our energy count.

There are a thousand different facets to the role oil has played in our modern world, and there’s no possible way I can address all the issues in a single speech. From transportation to agriculture to industrial production and the private home, oil has been a part of our lives for so many years, it’s almost impossible to imagine our lives without it. But we are going to have to start imagining that life. We’re going to have to start living that life. To keep you informed about the changes we’ll be going through, the Department of Energy will establish an extensive web site devoted to the issues and the solutions that we have right now. As the situation changes, and as new options develop, you will know about them as fast as we can offer them. We will streamline the process of bringing new technology, new options and new energy resources to the American people.

I will bring much of this news to you myself, as I plan to address all of you again, every month, as we make the transition from an oil-based society to a society that need not rely on diminishing natural resources–and we will still retain our commerce, our industry, and our American way of life. We do face a hard road ahead, but I have confidence in America, confidence in the American people. I know that we can take what many might see as a hardship and turn it into an amazing opportunity–a chance to bring America up to a whole new level of industry, commerce, and technology. This is our chance to do even better. This is our chance to make America even better.

Until we meet again, I urge every American to learn everything they can about the road ahead, and the opportunities that will present themselves to all of us.

And keep your bike tires pumped.

C. Haynes