OPEC’s rivals set to pump more oil in 2007

Producers outside OPEC may pump enough new oil next year to meet growth in world demand, unlike this year or in 2005, according to the International Energy Agency, as new fields come on stream.

Even so, the IEA, an adviser to 26 industrialised countries, warns that supply can undershoot its estimate by 300,000 bpd to 400,000 bpd a year — enough to tighten the world market.
Supply risks are rising as companies such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc tap oil in tougher places, like offshore Sakhalin Island in Russia’s Far East and in the Gulf of Mexico.

Mature regions like the UK North Sea are seeing a sharp decline in output of around 10 percent a year, offsetting growth in other countries.

Leading oil-price bull Barclays Capital’s growth forecast reflects the bank’s view that supply in Norway, Mexico, the UK and United States will decline more rapidly than others expect.

“We are less optimistic about those parts of the world,” said Kevin Norrish, analyst at Barclays. “People have tended to be overly optimistic on the decline rates there.”

Khaleej Times