Peak Oil: Even If The Optimists Are Right, Time Is Getting Tight

Peak oil proponents and skeptics agree that world production will eventually crest. Also, both sides of this debate accept that the decline curve will be gradual rather than sudden (with a little luck). Their common ground, although limited and easily obscured by emotional intensity, is slowly growing.

CERA and ASPO agree on a great deal. For example, they both think the world may very well wind up more dependent on oil from the Middle East. And they agree that available data on global oil and gas reserves remains incomplete, most worryingly for those massive but ageing oilfields of the Middle East.
CERA and ASPO accept that North America’s wealth-making economy rose on a foundation of cheap energy. “North Americans are predisposed to failing the energy IQ test,” says Udall. Drivers here cheerfully assume that relatively inexpensive gasoline will continue to flow from their neighbourhood pump more or less forever.

Plenty of other people would like to share that exuberant confidence in prosperity but cannot. Peakists and supply optimists alike recognize that billions in Africa, Latin America and Asia will only achieve a modern standard of living through dramatically greater energy supplies and better energy conservation.

CERA and ASPO believe that world demand could well outstrip conventional oil supplies within the relatively near future. And the analysts of both organizations accept that other forms of petroleum can be developed.

Daily Oil Business