Dr Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari and the four phases of transition

…Dr Bakhtiari predicts oil will cost in the range of $100-150 per barrel in the not-too-distant future. He characterizes this as the “Four Phases of Transition”…

Dr Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari is a former senior energy expert who spent his long career, which started in 1971, employed by the National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC) of Tehran, Iran. During the course of his employment with NIOC, he held many important positions of trust and responsibility.

Dr Bakhtiari is now fully retired from NIOC, in accordance with a mandatory age requirement. He has no current official link with the company. But, luckily for us in the Western world, he is among the pioneers of the global “Peak Oil” theory.

Dr Bakhtiari predicts oil will cost in the range of $100-150 per barrel in the not-too-distant future. He characterizes as the “Four Phases of Transition” (which he labels T1, T2, T3, and T4) in a world of declining conventional oil output. So what are the “Four Phases of Transition”?

I asked the good doctor this very question, and his reply was, “As for T1, T2, T3, and T4, they are still very vague concepts, but if you allow me a few days…I shall try to explain to you what I think about these four.” And good to his word, within a few days, Dr Bakhtiari was kind enough to forward some amplifying thoughts on the matter. Here is what he sent to me, to share with you:

Daily Reckoning