Recognizing the Peak

It is conventional wisdom among students of peak oil that worldwide peak oil production will not be recognized, and certainly not “officially” certified by some organization or other, until some years after the event has passed. The exception to this, of course, is if some natural or man-made catastrophe shuts down a lot of oil production in a manner not likely to be restored for many years.

Without such a catastrophe, recognition of peak oil will be gradual, with month after month of volatile production statistics trending downward. At some point, even the most optimistic prognosticator will be forced to admit it is unlikely that world production will ever again climb above the highest production record previously achieved.

You may wonder why we should really care if a country’s production is going up, going down, or remaining flat. The answer of course is that, until recently, it really didn’t make much difference to anyone, but the Saudis, if they produced 8 million, 10 million, or 12 million barrels of oil in a given day. If they didn’t fulfill demand for their product, somebody else would. As long as there was sufficient oil to fulfill demand without forcing up prices too much, that was all that mattered.

As the worldwide oil supply and demands tightens however, the need for timely accurate production statistics becomes increasing important— so much so that at some point, timely and detailed knowledge of world energy supplies may become a matter of critical importance.

The reason behind this assertion is simple.

Falls Church News Press