Using Hubbert Method on EIA Data – The Tiger Chasing Its Tail?

The Oil Drum – There are many potential definitions of Peak Oil: peak conventional, peak non-opec, date of maximum production, date of 50% Qt, peak liquids etc. We care about Peak Oil because a) we want to know if Hubbertian geology works globally the way it did in the lower 48 and b) we want to know the timing and quantity of less liquid fuel available to a globally connected society to initiate mitigation and planning. Typically, this site has used EIA data to puzzle out the ‘cigar’ posts with moving averages, new production records (Dec 2005), etc. The March EIA Report came out recently and showed March daily production of 84,047,000 barrels per day, a decrease from the heretofore peak (Dec 2005) of 652,000 barrels per day.

On this site and others, we spend a lot of time dissecting the monthly and yearly production numbers looking for signs of a peak. But it appears that unless the EIA changes their definitions, what we are currently calling “Peak Oil” will be obfuscated (and delayed) by increasing amounts of alternative energies that are definitionally included as ‘oil’ in the headline number.
The Oil Drum