Energy shapes new Gulf security architecture

The relevance of the Gulf region as a major supplier is further reinforced because alternative energy sources are inadequately developed to significantly replace hydrocarbon energy sources. The latter remains the main source of energy fuelling our civilisation and progress, and no major or sudden shift to other forms of alternative energy is anticipated in the near future. Any shift will not only be gradual and over the long term, but also requires tremendous investment. Thus, while continued research in and development of alternative energy sources should be encouraged and pursued, it is simply unrealistic to argue that these sources represent a near-term viable replacement for hydrocarbons. One consequence of this has been the revival of nuclear energy as a more immediate option, which is being pursued by China, India, US and Russia among others.

In connection with the above, the overall dependence on Gulf oil will continue to grow in the countries constituting the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, and in particular as far as Asia is concerned. With China likely to account for 20 per cent of the world’s incremental energy demand, and India and China expected to import 90 per cent of their oil by 2030, the rush to secure energy resources is already under way.
Currently, about 26 mbd of oil flow through the two main chokepoints in the world — the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca. At the same time, the vulnerability of price shock due to supply disruptions will rise, augmenting the attention paid to the security of sea lanes and pipelines.

In such a scenario, Asia will make considerable efforts to secure energy supply lines with countries like China and India, thereby undermining the reliance on the United States to provide that security. With security, supply and price of energy directly related to the security and stability in the Gulf region, the coming years would intensify competition and external involvement, with Asia being one region likely to also show its flag in the Gulf.

The bottom line that needs to be recognised is that as oil prices continue to increase, the medium- to long-term prospects for cheaper energy will be directly linked to future investments in the Middle East oil and gas sectors at all levels — national, regional and international — to boost exploration and improve production levels. All these factors make stability and security of the region that much more important for the world’s political and economic stability and continued development.

the Peninsula Qatar