Question of how much oil is left lingers in industry

Houston, a city built on cheap oil but now thriving on expensive energy, offers an interesting backdrop for the debate about whether after a century of growth global oil production is nearing a “peak” or has even begun an irreversible decline.

Many prominent energy analysts reject the peak oil thesis. Current data on reserves, investment and output show “a substantial buildup in world oil production for a number of years,” Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Research Associates recently told the House Energy Committee. At the worst, the world faces a “plateau in production capacity that might be reached closer to the middle of the century,” he added.

But Matthew Simmons, a local investment banker, has emerged as a leading peak oil theorist. Last year, he published “Twilight in the Desert,” a 400-page book, soon to be out in paperback, that argues that age and engineering mistakes will prevent Saudi Arabia from continuing to play its long-standing role as the world’s energy supplier of last resort.

Simmons’ 50th-floor executive suite in the Bank of America building in downtown Houston seems an unlikely setting for an industry dissident. Simmons’ credentials as a sometimes energy adviser to President Bush make his dire predictions even more striking.

Contra Costa Times