Blast from the past – Cato says $30/bbl unlikely

But what about a more modest cutback; say, a move to bring oil prices to $30-40 a barrel? Such prices are always possible, but there’s little chance that OPEC could engineer them in today’s economy. Demand is slumping because of a global economic downturn and major non-OPEC producers — Mexico, Norway, and Russia — do not appear to be interested in reducing output. Panic buying at the outset of a Middle Eastern war could conceivably deliver those prices, but production cutbacks probably could not.
Guess how long ago “Jerry Taylor … Director of Natural Resource Studies at Cato Institute” made the prediciton and then read his essay – Oil Weapon Myth

Sadly, he probably makes way more money than I do to be this wrong.