Oil production fears fuel grim economic warnings

As the oil price nudged above $64 a barrel this month on heightened concerns about disruption to supplies from Iran and Nigeria, a group of geologists, economists and commodity traders met in London to consider a more fundamental question: when will the world begin to run out of oil?

That moment is known as “peak oil” – the point at which production stops increasing and goes into inexorable decline. Some commentators believe that moment may be as little as two years away, some reckon we do not need to worry for another 20 years and some think the peak of production is so far in the distance that it is pointless to even try to put a timescale on it.